ERM Macro Risk Monitor

ERM Macro Risk Monitor is a structured macro-regime signal subscription and advisory data service based on the Economic Relativity Model. It helps investors, wealth managers, family offices, macro traders, and institutional users identify the current structural state of major economies and understand the market trend, opportunity window, risk environment, and allocation implications associated with that state.

ERM is not designed to predict the short-term movement of a single index or a single market. Its purpose is to assess whether an economy or region is currently in a Stable, Fragile, or Danger regime, and to interpret what that regime may imply for market behavior, including recovery, upside continuation, consolidation, vulnerability, or structural deterioration. The product is designed to identify both opportunity signals and risk signals, especially during periods of high volatility, conflicting news flow, and unclear technical market signals.

Core coverage currently focuses on the United States as the primary historical validation market, with broader coverage available for major economies and selected regions. Coverage may include country-level regime classification, cross-country comparison, regional risk interpretation, and structural analysis of macro-sensitive assets.

1. ERM Signal Subscription

Standard monthly macro-structure signal and interpretation service

Price: Starting from USD 30,000 per year

This is the core ERM subscription product. It provides a monthly baseline macro-structure signal and market interpretation, helping users understand whether the current environment is structurally supportive, constructive but cautious, vulnerable, or defensive.

Includes:

• Monthly ERM macro-structure signal
• Stable / Fragile / Danger classification
• Secondary positive / negative regime labels
• Structural Tension and System Freedom interpretation
• Trend-environment interpretation associated with the current regime
• Opportunity-signal and risk-signal explanation
• U.S. macro-structure monitoring as the primary validated market
• Coverage of major economies and selected regions where applicable
• Country-level regime classification and cross-country comparison
• Structural interpretation for major equity indices, technology stocks, growth stocks, and macro-sensitive assets
• Monthly written signal report
• One monthly explanation and Q&A call
• Major revision notes when the structural regime changes
• Historical regime context and comparable-period analysis where relevant

Best suited for:

• Wealth managers
• Family offices
• Macro investors
• Professional traders
• Small funds
• Advisors who need a structured market-judgment framework

Core use case:

Helping users identify the current structural state of a country, region, or market environment, and assess whether that state is more consistent with opportunity expansion, trend recovery, consolidation, risk accumulation, or structural deterioration.

2. ERM Active Monitor

Biweekly updates and event-driven structural interpretation

Price: Available upon request

ERM Active Monitor is designed for users who need more frequent updates and event-driven interpretation. In addition to the monthly ERM baseline signal, this version provides biweekly updates and structured notes on major market, policy, geopolitical, liquidity, or macro events.

Includes:

• Everything in ERM Signal Subscription
• Biweekly ERM update notes
• Event-driven structural impact analysis
• Assessment of whether major news changes the current structural state
• Assessment of whether a sudden event is noise, a short-term disturbance, or a potential structural transition
• Dynamic interpretation of opportunity windows and risk windows
• Additional country or regional monitoring where agreed
• Limited client-submitted event questions
• Additional calls or discussion sessions
• Faster clarification during major market-volatility periods

Best suited for:

• Active macro traders
• Small hedge funds
• Tactical allocation teams
• Family offices with active market exposure
• Clients who need to understand whether news events affect the structural regime

Core use case:

Translating market news, policy changes, and sudden events into structural impact, helping users assess whether the current environment still supports trend continuation, drawdown recovery, and opportunity capture, or whether it is shifting toward vulnerability and defensive risk management.

3. ERM Strategic Partnership

Dedicated ERM advisory, research collaboration, and custom structural analysis

Price: Available upon request

ERM Strategic Partnership is designed for clients who want ERM integrated more deeply into their investment, risk, or research process. This version provides higher-frequency interaction, custom research support, and the potential development of client-specific ERM indicators.

Includes:

• Everything in ERM Active Monitor
• Weekly or higher-frequency scheduled discussions
• Priority structural interpretation during major events
• Participation in client research, trading, or risk discussions
• Custom ERM research projects
• Country-specific, sector-specific, or asset-class-specific ERM development
• Client-data-based structural indicator development
• Support for investment committee discussions or strategic risk reviews
• Custom reports, dashboards, or data delivery formats where required
• Assistance in embedding ERM into the client’s investment, research, or risk-management workflow

Best suited for:

• Hedge funds
• Asset managers
• Family offices
• Research teams
• Risk committees
• Clients seeking customized ERM applications

Core use case:

Expanding ERM from a standard macro-structure signal into a client-specific structural judgment system for asset allocation, country allocation, sector research, opportunity identification, risk avoidance, event analysis, and strategic decision support.

4. Custom ERM Research Projects

Project-based structural research and model development

Price: Available upon request

Custom ERM Research Projects are designed for clients who need a focused study or customized structural model for a specific market, country, sector, asset class, or risk question.

Examples may include:

• Structural state and opportunity-window analysis for U.S. technology stocks
• AI-related market trend and vulnerability analysis
• Structural comparison between growth stocks and cyclical stocks
• Credit and banking stress
• Energy-market structural trends
• Country-level crisis vulnerability and opportunity environment
• Cross-country macro-regime comparison
• Real estate or property-sector pressure
• Client portfolio regime mapping
• Custom industry ERM indicator development

Best suited for:

• Institutional clients with specific research needs
• Funds evaluating a particular macro or sector opportunity/risk
• Firms with proprietary data that can support customized ERM modeling

Trial Access

Qualified institutional users may request limited trial access or a sample report.

Trial access may include:

• Sample ERM signal report
• Historical backtest summary
• Q1–Q2 live case study
• Introductory methodology call
• Short-term observation period before annual subscription

Price: Available upon request

Important Note

ERM Macro Risk Monitor provides macro-structure signals, trend-environment interpretation, opportunity/risk identification, and scenario analysis. It does not provide individualized investment advice, guaranteed returns, day-trading signals, or specific buy/sell recommendations.